Byron wien, a reputable market strategist at morgan stanley after which blackstone, died this 12 months on the age of 90. His “10 surprises” column become awaited yearly, now not a lot for their prescience however for being provocative, stirring outside the field questioning.
From the archive: this investing legend has been predicting surprises for the remaining 37 years. Here’s how he did ultimate 12 months — and what he’s forecasting now
Doug kass, the hedge-fund supervisor at seabreeze partners management and a chum of wien’s, has determined to soak up that mantle, which includes wien’s brevity and style. Here are a number of the most remarkable (and printable) of his predictions:
Kass — who was bullish for 2023, so now not a permabear by any stretch — says the s&p 500 will never exceed four,900, and could drop all of the way beneath four,a hundred in an oil-price scare as overseas powers step up army confrontations. Even worse might be the nasdaq which he says may additionally drop as tons as 20%, while the small-cap russell 2000 also loses ground as corporations struggle debt and working headwinds. The oil spike manifestly can be correct news for the likes of exxon mobil occidental petroleum and chevron
Important to his s&p and nasdaq decline view is that apple will go through “a large percent loss” because of change anxiety with china. He says normal revenue for apple will decline again subsequent 12 months. (analysts are looking forward to 3% sales growth). The silver lining, he says, is that berkshire hathaway will double down and raise its role to nearly 2 billion stocks (currently, 916 million).
Kass says banks will warfare as commercial real estate fails to recover in rate, even as what he calls wall road’s “maximum vicious vulture” — non-public fairness — gets torn to shreds due to a slowing global economic system and loan rate resets.
He says jamie dimon will subsequently depart jpmorgan chase joining either a haley — or even extra not likely, a whitmer — management as treasury secretary. He’ll be replaced at the bank with the aid of marianne lake, the co-ceo of purchaser & network banking.
Kass includes some “additionally ran” thoughts, also within the spirit of wien, either because they had been much less relevant or less likely. Kass’s additionally rans encompass: tiger woods wins a chief name, goldman leader david solomon resigns and is replaced by means of growing celebrity ericka leslie, and 0-day-to-expiration alternatives cause a 3% to five% flash crash on an expiration day at some point of the
The chart
This chart plots u.S. Equity and bond returns all of the manner back to 1800. Henry neville, s a multi-asset portfolio supervisor at man solutions, expects 2024’s dot to be within the backside proper quadrant, forecasting a modest decline within the s&p 500 because of earnings missing analyst estimates and a further modest advantage in bonds. Perhaps extra remarkable on a day the financial institution of japan didn’t act was his view that the yen is a cheap hedge towards equity gap chance, as are brent oil futures and the vix.
